Jeff Winchell's Letter to SEB for M3 Reclassification

1. Analysis in the attached letter shows that Bob Tunnell's performance has increased 2.73% over 1999 and Patty Tunnell driving the same car has also increased performance 2.66%. As the best developed Street Prepared M3 existing, I still believe the M3 had room for improvement last year before the SEB decided it could not compete in CSP. Even if this hypothesis is rejected, their improved performance this year further validates the position that the M3 was not an overdog for the faster (ASP/BSP/CSP) Street Prepared classes. Bob Tunnell's '99 National Championship performance decreased by 2.73% would have been a 1.8 second advantage over the winning CSP entry.
2. The M3 has a 50/50 weight distribution vs. the 56/44 or 57/43 weight distribution of the top Firebirds, Camaros, Mustangs and Eagle Talons that make up the lionshare of ESP participants. These cars weigh 200-500 lbs more than the well prepared M3 of the Tunnells. The M3 has a better rear suspension than the leading existing ESP cars, and is also smaller in width. The profile of the M3 more appropriately fits BSP.
3. I believe that if M3s continue to stay in ESP, the number of ESP competitors will be greatly reduced including an overall loss of autocross participants.

Finally, I realize that it is tempting to wait until the national championships before deciding on this issue. This course risks the following possible scenarios:

• Highly variable weather conditions make cross class comparisons impossible, or worse, make comparisons within ESP tenous at best
• The best and only well-prepared M3 driven by national champions is signficantly broken disabled before or at nationals
• The drivers of this car are too sick to effectively compete (This now appears to be more likely)
• Competitors driving traditional ESP cars and/or those driving ESP M3s deliberately alter their driving to encourage a favorable decision on the M3 ESP classing issue.

Given the stated intentions of the Tunnells to sell this car, if any of the above scenarios occur, it is unclear how long it will be until we have another situation of a well prepared M3 driven by national champion caliber drivers to make the proper comparison. That delay would significantly increase the likelihood of the decreased ESP attendence indicated in point 3.

The first three points in greater detail:

Performance Change

With the number of national championships already won by the Tunnells, I felt their driving skills were unlikely to increase significantly over the past year. So I reviewed the National Tour and ProSolo events of the past two years where the Tunnells competed. I did not include the '99 Solo II National Championship because I do not have the weather information necessary to remove environmental factors. I believe weather variability at the remaining events was insignificant.

Since Patty and Bob Tunnell are national champions, I restricted my analysis to national champion (Solo II or ProSolo) competitors at these events. I then compared their times. To compare different classes I used the widely used 2000 PAX index developed by Dave Beck. For Bob and Patty Tunnell I classed their car in ESP for both 1999 and 2000. The fastest of the national champion's PAXed times was compared to the PAXed performance of Bob and Patty Tunnell. In 1999, the fastest PAXed time was always someone besides Patty or Bob Tunnell. I calculated the ratio of Bob (or Patty)'s PAXed time divided by the fastest PAXed time for each event and then took the average of these times as representative of both Bob's and Patty's performance in 1999.

In 2000, the fastest PAXed time at each event was Bob Tunnell's. So for Bob's performance in 2000, I used the difference between the second fastest national champion 's PAXed time at each event and Bob's PAXed time. I then averaged that difference over all the events. For Patty Tunnell, I calculated her performance index by comparing her PAXed time vs the fasted PAXed time by a national champion other than Bob Tunnell.

To make this clear, the fastest PAXed national champion not named Tunnell referenced below was often a different person at each event. This emphasizes the impressive wins Bob Tunnell has had this year. Bob's 2000 % is 101% because he beat the 2nd best PAXed national champion by an average of 1%.

Improvement is calculated using (2000 Avg - 1999 Avg)/1999 Avg

Weight and Class Profile

Some interesting theories have been recently proposed on how to remove weight from the rear of a typical highly prepped ponycar. Much less weight can be removed from the front of these cars. These theories increase the percentage of weight on the front of these cars 1-2%. I have seen no proof that legal Street Prepared suspension changes can make a 58/42 car perform like a 50/50 distributed M3. The superior power to weight ratio of ponycars does affect lateral acceleration or braking. Remove the rear seat of an M3 and it's profile starts to look very much like a Datsun 240Z.

ESP Participation Levels

Whether it is possible to create a test that proves 100.000% that the M3 is superior to the existing cars in ESP, the perception exists that this is already true. ESP was the 3rd largest class at the '99 Nationals. As the perception that the M3 is an easy winner in ESP grows, more and more drivers will compete in M3s. However, sales of even just one of the leading ponycars far exceeds that of the M3. The short term prognosis is little reduction in ESP attendence but large growth in the number of ESP trophies won by M3s. As that continues, at the national event level more and more ESP ponycar owners will abandon the class as unwinnable. At the local level, new autocrossers who own ponycars will be more discouraged from continuing the sport long enough to transition to another more suitable car. I realize the information in this section is conjecture, but my marketing experience tells me that it is a plausable scenario.

Event Results Detail

Atwater ProSolo 1999

Seattle National Tour 1999

Seattle ProSolo 1999

Wendover ProSolo 1999

Denver National Tour 1999

San Bernardino ProSolo 2000

San Diego National Tour 2000

Lemoore ProSolo 2000

Peru ProSolo 2000